From January to February 2022, China's total social logistics was 51.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2% based on comparable prices. The growth rate of total social logistics continued the trend of recovery since the fourth quarter of last year, and was significantly higher than the level before the epidemic in 2019, indicating that the overall demand for logistics was still in the recovery channel and logistics operation had a steady start.
From the perspective of structure, internally, the effect of the policy of expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption continued to emerge, and the demand for industrial and consumer logistics maintained rapid growth. Externally, the global economic cycle has not recovered to normal levels, and the demand for import logistics continues to fall.
New drivers of faster growth in industrial logistics demand continued to strengthen
After the holiday, enterprises resumed work and production in an orderly manner, and the demand for industrial logistics maintained rapid growth. In the first two months of this year, the total volume of industrial goods logistics grew by 7.5 percent year-on-year, 1.4 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in the two years from 2020 to 2021.
From the perspective of structure, the new growth drivers continue to generate strength, and their role in supporting industrial logistics demand is increasing. High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing continued to grow rapidly. From January to February, the total logistics volume of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased by 14.4% and 9.6%, respectively, 2.3 and 3.4 percentage points higher than that of December last year.
In terms of industries, the computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, instrument manufacturing all achieved double-digit growth, the growth rate accelerated from the previous month. In addition, the automobile manufacturing industry grew by 7.2% year on year, 4.4 percentage points faster than that in December last year. Especially, the production of new energy vehicles increased by 150.5% year on year, continuing to grow at a high speed on the basis of the double growth of the previous year.
People's livelihood consumption logistics demand recovery accelerated new forms of business continued to exert force
From January to February, driven by online promotion factors such as the "Online New Year Shopping Festival", the demand for manufacturing logistics of consumer goods at the production end accelerated recovery, and the demand for logistics such as online shopping of e-commerce at the sales end did not decrease. At the production end, the recovery of the consumer goods manufacturing industry accelerated. The logistics demand of the consumer goods manufacturing industry in January and February increased by 9.7% year on year, 5.2 percentage points higher than the two-year average growth rate from 2020 to 2021.
From the sales side, the new business forms still play an obvious role in supporting. From January to February, the total amount of goods logistics of units and residents increased by 10.5% year-on-year; Among them, the online retail sales of physical goods increased by 12.3% year on year. The e-commerce logistics index showed that in the first two months, the growth rate of e-commerce logistics business was more than 25% year on year, and the growth of rural business was close to 25%, maintaining a rapid growth trend.
Import price increment drop logistics demand continues to fall
Since the fourth quarter of last year, international commodity prices have continued to rise, which has had a certain impact on China's related imports. Data showed that the flow of imported goods fell 3.5 percent year on year in January-February, the fifth consecutive month of decline. However, it should also be noted that the decline of import volume has narrowed since the beginning of this year. With the gradual recovery of our economy and supply chain in the future, the scale of import will also be expanded.
From the perspective of import structure, the import volume of crude oil, coal, lignite and steel decreased due to the sharp rise in prices and other factors, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 4.9%, 14.0% and 7.9% respectively. Among agricultural products, meat import demand maintained a downward trend, down 33 percent year on year.
Logistics market scale expansion industry accelerated integration
The scale of logistics market continues to expand, and industry integration is accelerating. Since 2021, the market scale of logistics industry has continued to expand, and the total revenue growth rate of logistics industry has also maintained a relatively high level. From January to February, the total revenue of the logistics industry reached 1.6 trillion yuan, up 9.7 percent year on year, faster than the pre-epidemic level in 2019.
With the growth of new drivers, the structure of logistics demand is constantly changing, which puts higher requirements on logistics services. In particular, the transformation and upgrading of the logistics industry has accelerated significantly since the epidemic, and the logistics market has entered a period of accelerated integration. The revenue share of the top 50 logistics enterprises in China rose to the highest level in recent years, and the overall industrial concentration increased steadily. The industry concentration was further promoted by the leading enterprises in subdivided fields, such as express delivery, through mergers and reorganizations. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, the brand concentration index CR8 of express delivery and parcel service from January to February was 85.3, significantly higher than that of the whole year and the same period in 2021.
Transport business growth is fast, logistics enterprises run more efficient. In terms of physical volume, the social freight volume in February increased by 15.5% year on year, of which the road freight volume increased by 21.1%. From the perspective of enterprise business, the total business index rose in February, not down, the index rose 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 51.2%. Since February, driven by the resumption of work and production and other factors, the physical volume and business volume of the logistics industry have maintained a good growth trend. Meanwhile, the logistics industry has maintained a relatively efficient operation efficiency. The capital turnover index and equipment utilization index in the logistics industry boom index in February both rose by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, staying above 50% for 6 months in a row, which reflects that enterprises take the initiative to improve the efficiency of capital use and improve the operating efficiency of logistics equipment, and play a certain role in adjusting the tight balance of personnel supply and demand in the first two months of the year.
Overall, the macro economy continued to recover in the first two months of this year, and the growth rate of logistics demand scale maintained a good level. From the perspective of market demand and expectation, the new order index and business activity expectation index of logistics industry climate index are 50.2% and 59.7% respectively, both higher than last month, and the business activity expectation index has been running in the high economic zone for two consecutive months, indicating that logistics enterprises have a good expectation for the development of the industry.
However, since March, there have been more unstable and uncertain factors, making it more difficult for the logistics industry to ensure the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain.
In terms of the external environment, some regions are still affected by the epidemic, and the level of development is uneven across industries and regions. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts are continuing, which may lead to the blockage of cross-border logistics channels in Europe, the shortage of transport capacity, the increase of freight rates, and the increasing pressure on the supply chain to maintain the supply and price of key commodities, which needs to be tracked, analyzed and closely watched.
From the perspective of market vitality, the operating costs of logistics enterprises are rising, and the upward pressure of raw materials and labor costs is increasing. The foundation for the overall recovery of the industry needs to be further stabilized:
First, the linkage between logistics service price and cost is weak. Although the cost of raw materials such as oil prices continues to rise, the price of logistics services has not increased significantly. The service price index of logistics industry climate index in February decreased by 0.2 percentage points instead of rising, and the price of highway logistics and coastal bulk cargo fell month-on-month, indicating that under the background of homogenized competition of freight services, the bargaining power of the industry is low, and the linkage between cost and logistics service price has a certain lag.
Second, the profitability of the industry is further under pressure. Key survey data show that from January to February, the cost of logistics business of key logistics enterprises increased by 17.3% year-on-year, and the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue was 90.7 yuan, an increase of 1% year-on-year, and significantly higher than the average level of industrial enterprises above designated size. Among them, due to the rising commodity prices, the structural shortage of labor and other factors, fuel costs and labor costs rose by more than double digits respectively. From the perspective of profit, the loss of key logistics enterprises in January and February was nearly 30%, up 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating that the operating pressure of logistics enterprises has increased, leading to further compression of profit space. The overall revenue margin was around 3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Among them, small, medium and micro logistics enterprises suffer more obviously. The revenue profit margin of small and micro logistics enterprises is less than 3%, lower than the same period of last year, and there is a big gap with large and medium-sized enterprises.